A tour of conformal prediction:
regression, classification, and
equitable treatment
Modern
machine learning algorithms have achieved
remarkable performance in a myriad of
applications, and are increasingly used to make
impactful decisions in the hiring process,
criminal sentencing, and healthcare diagnostics.
The use of data-driven algorithms in high-stakes
applications is exciting yet alarming: these
methods are extremely complex, often brittle,
notoriously hard to analyze and interpret.
Naturally, concerns have been raised about the
reliability of the output of such algorithms.
This talk introduces statistical tools that can
be wrapped around any "black-box" algorithm to
provide valid inferential results while taking
advantage of their impressive performance. We
present novel developments in conformal
prediction, which rigorously guarantee the
reliability of complex predictive models both in
regression and classification tasks, and, if
time permits, show how these methodologies can
be used to treat individuals equitably.