Detecting Spatial Clusters of
Disease Infection Risk Using
Sparsely Sampled Social Media
Mobility Patterns
Standard
spatial cluster detection methods used in public
health surveillance assign each disease case a
single location (e.g., patient’s home address),
aggregate locations to small areas, and monitor
the number of cases in each area over time.
However, this approach lacks the accuracy and
specificity to deal with infectious disease
outbreaks where human mobility plays a key role.
Here we propose two new spatial scan methods
(the unconditional and conditional spatial
logistic models) which search for spatial
clusters of increased infection risk in mobility
patterns by maximizing a generalized
log-likelihood ratio statistic over subsets of
the data. The methods correctly account for the
multiple, varying number of spatial locations
observed per individual, either by
non-parametric estimation of the odds of being a
case or by matching case and control individuals
with similar numbers of observed locations. By
applying our methods to synthetic and real-world
scenarios, we demonstrate robust performance in
detecting spatial clusters of infection risk
from mobility data, outperforming competing
baselines.